The entire case for "critical support" rested on the claim that Chavismo, whatever its faults, represented a barrier to imperialist penetration. That claim died this weekend in the FANB's demobilisation order. A leadership that hands the country to ExxonMobil rather than arm its own supporters has forfeited any claim to anti-imperialist credentials. Continued solidarity with that apparatus is not anti-imperialism; it is solidarity with the facilitators of imperialism.
As of Tuesday, January 6, the assessment of institutional paralysis in Venezuela has transitioned from a state of immediate shock to one of managed continuity centered on a "Madurismo without Maduro" model.
### Assessment of the Institutional Response
The initial observation of "military quiet" remains definitively correct. Despite early calls for a "massive deployment," the National Bolivarian Armed Forces (FANB) have avoided any kinetic engagement with U.S. assets. On Monday, January 5, Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López officially endorsed a Supreme Court ruling recognizing Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as the country's acting leader, effectively ending any pretense of a counter-offensive. Padrino has since urged the population to resume "normal activities," signaling that the military high command is prioritizing institutional survival over the restoration of the deposed leader. While National Assembly President Jorge Rodríguez vowed on Monday to explore "all avenues" to bring Maduro back, this appears to be rhetorical theater intended to pacify the regime's base while the transition proceeds.
### Likelihood of a Negotiated Exit
The evidence suggesting that internal arrangements facilitated Maduro’s exit has become significantly stronger:
* **Tactical Precision:** The JSOC "Operation Absolute Resolve" targeted Maduro’s specific residence within the Fuerte Tiuna complex without facing engagement from the Presidential Guard, a result that strongly indicates internal coordination or a high-level stand-down order.
* **Pre-Selection of Successor:** Reports indicate that Trump administration officials identified Delcy Rodríguez as a potential "business partner" and successor weeks before the operation, based on her existing ties to Wall Street and international oil interests.
* **Lack of Resistance:** The capture, described as a "surgical law enforcement operation," involved only 200 U.S. personnel and was completed without a single American fatality, further suggesting that the military’s upper echelons were neutralized by private agreements.
### Alignment with U.S. Interests
The regime is moving rapidly to accommodate core U.S. interests, particularly regarding energy and security. President Trump has explicitly prioritized "getting the oil flowing" and has already begun discussions with major U.S. oil companies to repair Venezuela's "rotten" infrastructure. On Monday, January 5, Chevron resumed authorized crude exports to the U.S. Gulf Coast, highlighting a "fractured enforcement landscape" where the interim government is already cooperating on energy logistics even as a broader blockade remains in place for other vessels.
### The Sidelining of María Corina Machado
Donald Trump’s dismissive comments regarding María Corina Machado—stating she lacks "respect" and "support" inside the country—confirm that the U.S. prefers a "regime tweak" over a grassroots democratic transition. This strategy aims for a "smooth transition" through existing technocrats like Delcy Rodríguez to ensure stability and immediate access to oil reserves. By working with the current power structure, the U.S. seeks to avoid the "regional quagmire" or the security vacuum that would follow a total regime collapse, which would otherwise require a massive U.S. military presence to manage.
The entire case for "critical support" rested on the claim that Chavismo, whatever its faults, represented a barrier to imperialist penetration. That claim died this weekend in the FANB's demobilisation order. A leadership that hands the country to ExxonMobil rather than arm its own supporters has forfeited any claim to anti-imperialist credentials. Continued solidarity with that apparatus is not anti-imperialism; it is solidarity with the facilitators of imperialism.
Tariq Ali has written this wonderful, beautifully written, analysis of the inside job in Caracas. https://newleftreview.org/sidecar/posts/abduction-in-caracas?pc=1732
As of Tuesday, January 6, the assessment of institutional paralysis in Venezuela has transitioned from a state of immediate shock to one of managed continuity centered on a "Madurismo without Maduro" model.
### Assessment of the Institutional Response
The initial observation of "military quiet" remains definitively correct. Despite early calls for a "massive deployment," the National Bolivarian Armed Forces (FANB) have avoided any kinetic engagement with U.S. assets. On Monday, January 5, Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López officially endorsed a Supreme Court ruling recognizing Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as the country's acting leader, effectively ending any pretense of a counter-offensive. Padrino has since urged the population to resume "normal activities," signaling that the military high command is prioritizing institutional survival over the restoration of the deposed leader. While National Assembly President Jorge Rodríguez vowed on Monday to explore "all avenues" to bring Maduro back, this appears to be rhetorical theater intended to pacify the regime's base while the transition proceeds.
### Likelihood of a Negotiated Exit
The evidence suggesting that internal arrangements facilitated Maduro’s exit has become significantly stronger:
* **Tactical Precision:** The JSOC "Operation Absolute Resolve" targeted Maduro’s specific residence within the Fuerte Tiuna complex without facing engagement from the Presidential Guard, a result that strongly indicates internal coordination or a high-level stand-down order.
* **Pre-Selection of Successor:** Reports indicate that Trump administration officials identified Delcy Rodríguez as a potential "business partner" and successor weeks before the operation, based on her existing ties to Wall Street and international oil interests.
* **Lack of Resistance:** The capture, described as a "surgical law enforcement operation," involved only 200 U.S. personnel and was completed without a single American fatality, further suggesting that the military’s upper echelons were neutralized by private agreements.
### Alignment with U.S. Interests
The regime is moving rapidly to accommodate core U.S. interests, particularly regarding energy and security. President Trump has explicitly prioritized "getting the oil flowing" and has already begun discussions with major U.S. oil companies to repair Venezuela's "rotten" infrastructure. On Monday, January 5, Chevron resumed authorized crude exports to the U.S. Gulf Coast, highlighting a "fractured enforcement landscape" where the interim government is already cooperating on energy logistics even as a broader blockade remains in place for other vessels.
### The Sidelining of María Corina Machado
Donald Trump’s dismissive comments regarding María Corina Machado—stating she lacks "respect" and "support" inside the country—confirm that the U.S. prefers a "regime tweak" over a grassroots democratic transition. This strategy aims for a "smooth transition" through existing technocrats like Delcy Rodríguez to ensure stability and immediate access to oil reserves. By working with the current power structure, the U.S. seeks to avoid the "regional quagmire" or the security vacuum that would follow a total regime collapse, which would otherwise require a massive U.S. military presence to manage.